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  • Writer's pictureAdam German

Tokyo and Osaka lead global condominium price increases

Updated: Jun 3

Prices for new condominiums in Tokyo and Osaka have risen the most among 15 major global cities, driven by a weak yen attracting international investors, according to a semiannual report released on May 30th. 

Japan Real Estate Institute October 2023 to April 2024 Condo Price Change Trends in Percentage

Courtesy of Japan Real Estate Institute translated by Patience Realty 


According to the Nikkei Asia, data from the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) shows that prices in both cities increased by 1.5% each in the six months leading to April 2024, surpassing growth in markets like Singapore (1.3%) and New York (0.3%).  


This marks the first time since the survey began in 2010 that both Japanese cities have jointly held the top spot. 


Rising costs for land, labor, and materials like concrete are key factors. The cost of building a condominium has increased by 20% to 30%, and this is reflected in the rising prices, according to a real estate development executive who spoke to the Nikkei.  


The short supply of new housing, especially in prime locations, exacerbates the situation. Only 11,909 new condo units were put on the market in Tokyo's 23 central wards last year, about 40% of the number a decade earlier. 


Mitsui Fudosan recently began accepting reservations for its new high-rise project, Park City Nakano The Tower Airz.  


Park City Nakano The Tower Airz Exterior CG Image

Park City Nakano The Tower Airz courtesy of Mitsui Fudosan.


The three-bedroom units, priced around 150 million yen ($955,000), attracted significant interest. According to the Nikkei, president Takashi Ueda opined that the rally in the stock market has led buyers to raise their budgets. 

 

In Osaka, the Grand Green Osaka project near JR Osaka Station has garnered attention, with some units in The North Residence priced as high as 2.5 billion yen.


Grand Green Osaka North Residence Penthouse Interior CG Image

Grand Green Osaka North Residence penthouse interior CG image courtesy of the developers


Foreign investment has significantly driven up prices. Data from Jones Lang LaSalle shows inbound real estate investment soared to 177.3 billion yen in the first quarter of 2024, up from 45.1 billion yen in the previous quarter. 


The yen has depreciated from around 141 yen to the dollar at the end of 2023 to approximately 157 yen now, providing a 10% discount for foreign buyers.  


The significant price increase partly reflects the lower starting prices in Tokyo and Osaka compared to other major markets, suggesting further room for growth.  


However, continued price increases may pose a barrier for buyers. The median price of a new condo in Tokyo was 9.7 times the average household income last year, up from 7.3 times in 2013.  

Rising interest rates could further impact the market. The yield on new 10-year Japanese government bonds reached a 13-year high of 1.1%, heightening expectations for higher fixed-rate home loan interest rates. "It's become challenging to predict how high mortgage rates will rise," said Takeshi Ide of Tokyo Kantei speaking to the Nikkei, "This uncertainty may discourage new loans, potentially dampening the demand for home purchases." 

 

Further Reading: 

JREI Condo Report April 2024 (Japanese only) 

JREI April 2024 Condo Report JA
.pdf
Download PDF • 459KB

 

Source: 

Nikkei Asia (English version; paywalled or open the link in a private browser) 

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