Japan faces 10 percent drop in new single-family homes by 2030 says Yano Research

The Yano Research Institute released a report on April 24th outlining current trends and future projections for Japan’s single-family home (SFH) market.

According to the study, new SFH nationwide starts are forecast to fall to 321,000 units by 2030 - a decline of roughly 10% compared to fiscal 2023.

Trend & forecast graph by Yano Research, edited by Patience Realty.

The report attributes the projected decrease to structural demographic changes, including Japan’s shrinking population, as well as rising construction costs and upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

As these trends continue, the overall number of new SFH starts in Japan is expected to decline further.

Although the broader SFH market has been on a downward trajectory since fiscal 2018 due to factors such as population decline and soaring building costs, one segment has remained relatively resilient: Built-to-Sell SFH (as opposed to off-plan sales).

Demand for these ready-built properties has grown, particularly those offered by so-called "power builders," and are viewed as more affordable amid rising home prices.

Major homebuilders that once focused primarily on custom homes are increasingly shifting toward this ready-made, built-to-sell segment.

The report also notes a shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality, with homebuyers seeking greater value and diversity in housing options. In response, developers have expanded their product lines.

Environmentally friendly homes such as ZEH (net zero energy houses) are gaining traction due to heightened social awareness, and major builders are actively promoting such offerings.

At the same time, to address consumer concerns about affordability amid high construction costs, more homebuilders are investing in “pre-designed” or “standardized” homes. These offer lower prices while maintaining quality, aiming to restore buyer confidence in a challenging market.

Source:

R.E. Port News (Japanese only)