Variable rate loans still dominate as borrowers brace for rate increases says JHF
- Adam German
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
The Japan Housing Finance Organization (JHF) on Feb. 20 released the results of its Survey on the Conditions of Mortgage Borrowers (January 2026 survey), showing that variable-rate mortgages continue to dominate while expectations of rising interest rates intensify.
The survey targeted individuals aged 20 to 70 who took out housing loans between April and September 2025, gathering 1,237 valid responses.
The most common borrowing rate range was 0.5% to 1.0%, cited by 53.4% of borrowers, up from 45.2% in the previous survey conducted in April 2025.
Repayment periods of 30 to 35 years remained the most prevalent at 38.9%, though this declined from 45.8% previously. High loan-to-value borrowing - defined as financing 90% to 100% of a property purchase - accounted for 24.1%, slightly down from 26.5%.
Debt repayment burden ratios - the share of income allocated to mortgage repayments - most frequently fell within the 15% to 20% range, reported by 26.2% of surveyed households, compared with 24.3% in the prior study.
By loan type, variable-rate mortgages accounted for 75.0% of borrowing, despite a 4.0 percentage point decline from 79.0%.
Meanwhile, mortgages with a temporarily fixed introductory rate - loans where interest rates are fixed for a limited initial period before typically converting to a variable rate - increased to 14.9%, up from 12.2%. Fully fixed-rate mortgages also edged higher, rising to 10.1% from 8.8%.
Expectations of rising borrowing costs strengthened markedly. Some 73.7% of borrowers predicted mortgage rates would increase over the next year, up sharply from 65.7% in April 2025. In contrast, 17.1% anticipated rates would remain largely unchanged, while 2.3% expected a decline.
Understanding mortgage rate revision rules remained limited. Approximately 40% of participants expressed uncertainty or lack of comprehension, including 31.8% who said they were unsure whether they understood the rules governing rate adjustments.
The survey also examined how recent inflation and rising home prices affected housing acquisition plans. Most respondents (63.1%) reported changes to their plans. The most common adjustment was increasing the budget or loan amount (22.0%), followed by reconsidering location choices (17.7%).
Further Reading:
Japan Housing Finance Organization January 2026 Mortgage Borrower Survey Report (Japanese only; offers more granular details then that outlined above)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
