Greater Tokyo Area new condo prices rise even as demand softens

Adam German
7 hours ago
3 min read

New condominium supply in the Greater Tokyo Area rose modestly in January 2026, while prices continued their upward trend and contract rates remained subdued according to the latest survey released by the Real Estate Economic Institute on February 19th.

Photo by Cem Ersozlu on Unsplash

The survey covers Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures, collectively referred to as the Greater Tokyo Area.

Sales Increase for First Time in Four Months

A total of 628 new condominiums were released for sale in January, up 1.3 percent year on year from 620 units. This marked the first increase in four months.

Compared with December’s 5,468 units, supply plunged 88.5 percent, reflecting a seasonal contraction.

By area, performance was mixed:

Tokyo’s 23 wards: 175 units, up 10.1 percent year on year, accounting for 27.9 percent of supply
Tokyo non 23 wards: 146 units, up 147.5 percent, 23.2 percent share
Kanagawa Prefecture: 168 units, down 30.0 percent, 26.8 percent share
Saitama Prefecture: 64 units, down 7.2 percent, 10.2 percent share
Chiba Prefecture: 75 units, down 19.4 percent, 11.9 percent share

Tokyo as a whole accounted for 51.1 percent of total supply.

Contract Rate Remains Below Market Benchmark

The initial-month contract rate, a key measure of market strength, stood at 55.7 percent. That was down 2.8 percentage points from a year earlier and 7.4 points lower than December.

The rate has now remained below the 70 percent level, widely viewed as the benchmark for strong conditions, for ten consecutive months.

The initial-month contract rate measures the share of first phase condo units sold within their first month on the market. A rate of 70 percent or higher is widely viewed as healthy demand, while lower levels signal softer buyer appetite.

Recent monthly figures show continued softness:

December 2025 - 63.1 percent

November - 60.2 percent

October - 63.0 percent

September - 54.4 percent

August - 65.1 percent

July - 68.0 percent

Average Prices Post Ninth Consecutive Year on Year Increase

The average price per unit rose to 83.83 million yen, up 10.4 million yen, or 14.2 percent, from a year earlier.

The average price per square meter reached 1.249 million yen, up 133000 yen, or 11.9 percent year on year.

Both the average unit price and the per square meter price recorded year on year increases for the ninth consecutive month.

Inventory Continues to Decline

As of the end of January 2026, unsold inventory totaled 6627 units, down 349 units from the end of December, when inventory stood at 6976 units.

At the end of January 2025, inventory was 6528 units, indicating supply remains broadly stable compared with a year earlier.

Super High-Rise Condominiums

In January, five super high rise projects of 20 floors or more, comprising 42 units, were released. The contract rate for these towers was 57.1 percent.

A year earlier, three such projects totaling 25 units were released, with a contract rate of 44.0 percent.

Central Six Wards Continue to Command Premium Prices

In Tokyo’s central six wards of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo and Shibuya, supply totaled 50 units in January.

The average price reached 194.62 million yen, while the average price per square meter stood at 2.865 million yen.

A year earlier, 29 units were released in these wards at an average price of 167.50 million yen and 2.972 million yen per square meter.

While average unit prices rose sharply in the central core, the per square meter price eased slightly year on year.

Flat 35 Eligibility and February Outlook

A total of 588 units, or 93.6 percent of all listings, were registered as eligible for the government-backed Flat 35 long term fixed rate mortgage program.

Looking ahead, approximately 1000 units are expected to be released in February 2026.

For comparison, February supply in prior years was:

2025 - 1,288 units

2024 - 1,319 units

2023 - 1,821 units

2022 - 2,287 units

The data suggest that while pricing momentum remains intact across the Greater Tokyo Area, absorption continues to lag, leaving the market dependent on selective demand in central Tokyo and specific high-profile projects.