Tokyo Kantei data shows climb in short term condo resales

The Nikkei Shimbun published on February 24th an article highlighting a growing concentration of short-term condominium resales in central Tokyo, adding to concerns that speculative trading may be distorting prices in some of the capital’s most expensive neighborhoods.

According to a private-sector survey cited in the report, resale activity was notably higher in the city center. In 2025, roughly 5% of units in condominiums less than five years old in Chiyoda Ward were listed for sale - about double the average resale rate across Tokyo’s 23 wards.

The findings were released on the 24th by Tokyo Kantei, a real estate research firm based in Shinagawa. The company calculated short-term resale rates- defined as units listed within five years of completion - by examining how many units were offered on the secondary market relative to total units.

Chuo and Minato wards also recorded elevated levels. While the overall share remains small relative to total housing stock, there are concerns that a limited number of high-priced flips could influence surrounding market values.

The average across Tokyo’s 23 wards rose to 2.49% in 2025, up from 2.29% a year earlier. Rates were highest in central areas, including Chiyoda (4.92%), Chuo (4.66%), and Minato (4.57%).

Outside Tokyo, Osaka City recorded an average resale rate of 2.48%, with particularly high levels in Kita Ward (4.65%) and Chuo Ward (4.62%). Sapporo’s Kita Ward stood out at 9.76%.

Price markups on resale - measuring how much asking prices exceeded original new-build prices - were also striking. Across Tokyo’s 23 wards, resale listings averaged roughly 60% above initial prices. In Chuo and Minato, units were commonly listed at about twice their new-build price, underscoring strong seller expectations.

At the individual property level, some developments saw as many as 20% of total units listed within five years of completion. Masayuki Takahashi, a senior researcher at Tokyo Kantei, said that while the average resale rate across the 23 wards “is not especially high and short-term resales remain localized,” expensive flips in popular central neighborhoods “risk overheating nearby prices.”

What stands out, the report noted, is that both resale rates and price markups have climbed sharply in recent years, especially in the city center. In Chiyoda Ward, for example, the resale rate stood at 2.24% in 2019, with an average markup of 22.3%. By 2025, those figures had risen to 4.92% and 62.6%, respectively.

Speculative trading in condominiums has drawn scrutiny from national and local authorities. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said in a November 2025 survey that 9.3% of properties traded in Tokyo’s 23 wards between January and June 2024 had been bought and resold within a year - up sharply from 5.7% in 2023.

In July 2025, Chiyoda Ward asked the Real Estate Companies Association of Japan to encourage developers to introduce clauses banning resales of certain new condominiums for five years. Mayor Takaaki Higuchi warned that “at this rate, the area risks becoming a place where ordinary people can no longer afford to live.”

Rapid price gains are already affecting transaction dynamics. Tasuku Yoshida, a senior researcher at NLI Research Institute, noted that “in central Tokyo, a segment of buyers can no longer keep up with rising prices.”

Data from the East Japan Real Estate Information Network show that in January 2026, average asking prices in the three core wards - Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato - reached ¥3.34 million per square meter, while closing prices averaged ¥2.55 million.

While the gap between listing and closing prices appears to have widened since the second half of 2024, transaction data are voluntarily reported by agents, and many higher-end sales go undisclosed. Because all on-market listings include asking prices, advertised price data are more complete, which may partly explain the growing disparity.

According to Tokyo Kantei, condominium inventory across six central wards - Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, and Shibuya - climbed to 4,260 units as of January 2026, surpassing the previous peak in March 2023 and marking a record high.

The increase suggests more properties are failing to sell at sellers’ desired prices, with a growing share of listings undergoing price cuts.

Source:

Nikkei Shimbun (Japanese only; paywalled)