Japan deaths more than double births in 2023 preliminary population data
- Adam German
- Feb 27, 2024
- 2 min read
Japan’s demographic decline accelerated in 2023, with deaths more than doubling births and the country’s natural population decrease exceeding 800,000 people for the first time.
Photo by Yanhao Fang on Unsplash
On February 27th, 2024, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released preliminary vital statistics for 2023, showing Japan recorded 758,631 births during the year.
That was a 5.1% decrease from 2022 and marked the eighth consecutive annual decline in births.
It was also the lowest birth figure on record.
The pace of decline is moving faster than previously expected. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected that Japan’s annual births would not fall below 760,000 until 2035.
Instead, the preliminary 2023 figure had already dropped below that level more than a decade earlier.
Deaths reached a record 1,590,503 in 2023, an increase of 8,470 from the previous year and the third consecutive annual rise.
The result was a natural population decrease of 831,872 people, calculated as deaths minus births.
That gap matters for housing because fewer people over time generally means fewer households, weaker demand in some regional markets, and a greater need for investors to understand where demand is still being created.
For international market participants, the key question is not simply whether Japan’s population is falling.
The more useful question is where demand remains durable despite national decline.
Marriage data also points to longer-term pressure on household formation.
New marriages fell below 500,000 couples for the first time in 90 years, totaling 489,281 in 2023. That was a decline of more than 30,000 couples from the previous year.
Because births in Japan remain closely tied to marriage trends, a sustained fall in marriages makes a near-term recovery in births more difficult.
Divorces rose 2.6% to 187,798 couples in 2023, the first increase in four years.
Japan is also continuing to age. By 2024, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projected the country’s median age would reach about 50, meaning more than half the population would be over roughly that age.
For the real estate market, this points to several long-term themes.
Demand for newer, well-located, low-maintenance housing may remain relatively stronger in markets where older households want convenience, access to transport, medical facilities, and daily services.
At the same time, older homes in weaker regional markets may face rising vacancy risk, lower resale liquidity, and increased pressure for renovation, demolition, or repurposing.
Japan’s shrinking and aging population is therefore not just a demographic story.
It is one of the main structural forces shaping the country’s real estate market, from regional housing demand to urban condominium pricing, rental stability, and the future use of older property stock.
Further Reading:
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare - Vital Statistics Preliminary Report, December 2023 (Japanese only)
