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  • Writer's pictureAdam German

Double digit drop in initial contract rate for Greater Tokyo Area new condos

Updated: Feb 22

The Real Estate Economic Research Institute announced on November 20th the market trends for newly constructed condominiums in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) for October, 2023.

Looking at Year-on-Year (YoY) figures, the number of GTA units released for sale saw a significant decrease, totaling 1,486 units (a 46.3% decrease compared to the same month last year). 

Broken down by prefecture:

Area Name

Units Released

YoY Change

Tokyo 23 Ward


55.6% down

Tokyo non-23 Ward


24.7% down

Saitama Pref.


56.3% down

Chiba Pref.


29.4% down

Kanagawa Pref.


40.2% down

The initial contract rate fell to 60.9% (a decline of 11.0 points), marking the third consecutive month in the 60% range.

The initial contract rate is the amount of new condos that went to contract in the first month of sales.  This doesn’t mean all the condos in a particular building, just the ones that have been released for sale at a particular time, usually spread out in phases over time.  An initial contract rate of 70% is considered healthy.   Extended periods below the 70% mark could mean buyer demand is softening. 

The average price per new condo fell to ¥65.67 million (a 3.2% decrease YoY) reversing eight straight months of increases. 

However, the price per square meter continued its upward trend, reaching an average of ¥1.01 million (a 1.5% increase YoY) for an eighth consecutive month.

Roughly 4,000 new GTA condo units are expected to be released for sale in November.

Further Reading:

Real Estate Economic Research Institute New Condo Market Trend Report for October 2023

October 2023 Brand New Condo Report
Download PDF • 318KB


R.E. Port News (Japanese only) 


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