Earlier in August the yen carry trade unwind caused havoc in global markets across all relatively liquid asset types due to the Bank of Japan’s announcement of higher interest rates.
No one can say whether the yen carry trade is fully unwound nor can they say for certain what the BOJ’s next moves will be other than normalization is very much on the cards.
Below is analysis from two economists; Khoon Goh from ANZ Bank and Frederic Neumann of HSBC, both talking to CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Both interviews were recorded prior to Jerome Powell’s comments in Jackson Hole this week.
What this means for Japanese real estate remains to be seen as the interest rate rise and the subsequent carry trade unwind didn’t directly affect the property market, but the below will give insights into buyer and seller sentiment moving forward.
Khoon Goh’s Key Takeaways:
Dollar-Yen Forecast: Khoon Goh predicts the dollar-yen exchange rate will likely range between 145 to 148 by the end of the year, acknowledging the high volatility expected due to various factors, including the U.S. election.
BOJ Policy and Rate Hikes: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to continue its slow normalization process, potentially raising rates towards the end of the year. However, this will depend on global financial market stability. A rate hike could be postponed if volatility similar to the early August market crash recurs.
Inflation and Policy Rate: With inflation at 2.8%, Goh questions the justification for maintaining a policy rate at 0.25%. He suggests the BOJ is behind the curve and needs to act to prevent further market imbalances.
Fed's Rate Cuts and Impact on Markets: Goh discusses the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, noting that the market is currently pricing in aggressive cuts. He believes a more moderate approach is likely, which could lead to a dollar rebound if Fed Chair Jay Powell confirms this at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.
Risks for the Yen: Despite predicting the yen will end the year in the 145-148 range, Goh acknowledges the risk of a stronger yen, particularly if the Fed becomes more aggressive in cutting rates than currently anticipated.
Frederic Neumann Key Takeaways:
BOJ's Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to continue tightening its monetary policy, but the pace will likely be slow due to concerns about market volatility. Frederic Neumann suggests that the next move may not occur until early next year.
Market Volatility and Communication Strategy: Neumann notes that the market's extreme reaction to the last BOJ rate hike was partly due to the unexpected nature of the move. He believes the BOJ will likely improve its communication strategy before making further rate increases to avoid similar market disruptions.
Global Market Stability: Despite some recent stabilization in global markets, Neumann highlights that BOJ Governor Ueda remains cautious, noting that the global economic outlook has not significantly changed. Central bankers, including those in Japan, see markets as having overreacted to recent events.
Yen Strength and Corporate Earnings: Neumann raises concerns about the potential impact of a stronger yen on Japanese corporate earnings. While the BOJ initially faced pressure to normalize policy due to yen weakness, there is now a risk that the yen could strengthen too much, which could undermine inflationary momentum and hinder the BOJ's efforts to maintain its 2% inflation target.
BOJ's Future Actions: Given these factors, Neumann believes the BOJ will likely delay further tightening until next year to observe where the yen stabilizes, avoiding any actions that might inadvertently strengthen the yen too much in the short term.
Yen Carry Trade Historical Context
To understand the carry trade better, Coin Bureau, a cryptocurrency channel, put together a very easy to understand explainer about how the yen got here and opines whether we are out of the woods yet or not.
Despite discussing the carry trade in the context of BTC price effects, the video does a thorough job explaining in layman's terms historical context.
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