On September 19th, the Real Estate Economic Institute announced updated market trends for new condominiums in the Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) for August 2024.
The report separates metrics into the following four categories:
Number of condo units released for sale
The initial contract rate
Average condo price per unit
Average condo price per square meter
The initial contract rate refers to the percentage of condos released in the first phase of sales where buyers committed to signing a purchase agreement.
Analysts globally use the 70% threshold as a benchmark for estimating the health of buyer demand; an initial contract rate above 70% can mean healthy buyer demand and below can mean weakening buyer demand.
Japan is no different in this regard.
August 2024 Greater Tokyo New Condominium Release Trends
The number of newly launched units in August totaled 728, a 50.4% decrease compared to the same month last year, or Year-on-Year (YoY)
Historical new condo units released for GTA and Greater Osaka taken from report linked below, edited by Patience Realty.
All areas experienced a downturn, with a significant reduction in Tokyo’s 23 wards.
The breakdown by region is as follows:
Region | No. of New Units | YoY % Change |
Tokyo 23 wards | 345 | down 59.8% |
Tokyo non-23 wards | 68 | down 9.3% |
Kanagawa Pref. | 142 | down 54.9% |
Saitama Pref. | 110 | down 6.8% |
Chiba Pref. | 63 | down 38.8% |
Despite the decline in supply, prices surged. The average price per unit increased by 32.5% YoY to ¥95.32 million, and the price per square meter rose by 27.8% YoY to ¥1,468,000.
Both metrics marked their first increase in two months.
Historical initial contract rate for GTA and Greater Osaka taken from report linked below and edited by Patience Realty.
The initial-month contract rate dropped to 63.5%, a decrease of 5.1% YoY, falling below the 70% level for the first time in two months as inventory compression continued.
Looking ahead, approximately 2,000 units are expected to be launched in September.
Further Reading:
August 2024 New Condo Market Trends for Greater Tokyo and Osaka
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
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