Tokyo existing condo price growth spreads beyond the city center
- Adam German
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
Greater Tokyo existing-condominium prices reached another record in the first half of 2026, but the strongest growth is no longer concentrated in the most expensive parts of central Tokyo.
Photo by Ryo Yoshitake on Unsplash
Tokyo Kantei's standardized existing-condominium market-price measure for Greater Tokyo rose 9.1% from the previous half-year to JPY 5.042 million per tsubo, the first reading above JPY 5 million since the series began.
The Tokyo 23 wards also remained strong, rising 8.3% to JPY 6.545 million per tsubo. But the pace of increase has been slowing since its recent peak in the second half of 2024.
The clearest sign of change is geographic.
Central Tokyo, which Tokyo Kantei defines as Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo and Shibuya wards, rose 5.7%.
By comparison, Jonan/Josai - Shinagawa, Meguro, Ota, Setagaya, Nakano and Suginami - increased 9.7%, while Johoku/Joto, covering the remaining 11 wards, rose 9.2%.
Twelve of the 23 wards recorded increases above the 23-ward average, suggesting that price growth is becoming more broadly distributed across the city.
Minato was the notable exception. It was the only ward to record a half-on-half decline, its first in 19 half-year periods.
The report doesn’t indicate a Minato downturn. It remains one of Tokyo's most expensive residential markets. But the result is significant because it shows weaker short-term momentum in a market that has been central to Tokyo's recent price surge.
The Tokyo Kantei figures are also important to interpret correctly. They are not simple averages of condominium transactions completed during the period.
Tokyo Kantei uses a standardized market-price measure intended to reduce differences between the properties being compared, including building age, station distance and unit characteristics. The series is therefore better understood as a measure of underlying market-price movement than as an average transaction price.
The latest results raise the possibility that Tokyo is entering a period of geographic rotation in price growth.
Affordability may be part of the explanation. Years of sharp increases have widened the absolute price gap between central Tokyo and surrounding wards, potentially making relatively lower-priced parts of the city more attractive to buyers.
Rising mortgage rates also make those differences increasingly relevant, although the Tokyo Kantei data do not prove that higher borrowing costs are directly redirecting demand.
Other factors, including limited condominium supply, high construction and replacement costs and investor demand, may also be contributing.
For international buyers and investors, the main implication is that focusing only on Minato, Chiyoda, Chuo, Shibuya and other premium central locations increasingly risks missing part of the market story.
Central Tokyo remains extremely expensive and prices there are not broadly falling. But the latest data suggest that the strongest percentage growth is becoming less concentrated at the center.
Tokyo's condominium market may be shifting from a period dominated by exceptional central-Tokyo appreciation toward one in which price growth is distributed more broadly across the 23 wards.
That is better described as a broadening or rotation in price growth than the start of a Tokyo condominium downturn.
Further Reading:
Tokyo Kantei: Existing Condominium Market Price Survey, Greater Tokyo, First Half 2026 (Japanese only)
