Tokyo agent sentiment slumps even as condo prices keep rising

Tokyo condominium prices were still rising in June, but a sharp deterioration in residential real estate agent sentiment suggests conditions in the capital’s for-sale housing market may be weakening before that slowdown becomes visible in headline transaction-price data.

Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash

AtHome’s Sales-Agent Diffusion Index (DI) for the Tokyo 23 wards fell to 44.4 in the April-June quarter from 51.3 in January-March.

In Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato, Tokyo’s three central wards, it dropped much more sharply from 60.2 to 39.7.

The DI measures whether agents think business conditions are better or worse than they were a year earlier. A reading above 50 indicates improvement, while below 50 indicates deterioration.

It is a sentiment indicator based on agent responses, not a direct measure of transaction volume, prices or inventory.

That distinction matters because completed-sale prices were still moving higher.

The Japan Real Estate Institute’s existing-condominium price index for Greater Tokyo rose 1.05% month on month to 149.19 in June, its 30th consecutive monthly increase. Tokyo rose 1.19% to 176.41.

The index is based on repeat transactions of the same properties, so it reflects transaction prices rather than asking prices.

Agent sentiment may be an earlier market signal

The gap between rising transaction prices and deteriorating agent sentiment is not necessarily contradictory. It may instead reflect the different points in the transaction cycle that the two datasets capture.

Agents encounter changes in buyer inquiries, viewing activity, budget resistance, negotiations and failed or delayed purchases before those conditions necessarily appear in completed-sale price indices. In that sense, sentiment can potentially act as an earlier indicator of changing market conditions, although the AtHome survey does not prove that prices will subsequently fall.

The breadth of AtHome’s agent network makes the signal worth watching. Its April-June survey received 1,937 valid responses from established real estate businesses across 13 prefectures and 14 market areas, with a large concentration of respondents in the Greater Tokyo Area.

AtHome also operates one of Japan’s largest real estate information networks, with more than 63,000 member and user offices nationwide as of mid-2026.

That gives the company unusually broad access to agents dealing directly with buyers and sellers. The survey has also been conducted quarterly since 2014, with the latest release marking its 50th edition.

The latest responses are especially notable in central Tokyo. AtHome said extremely high prices and higher interest rates were causing more owner-occupier buyers to postpone purchases, while demand from investors and foreign buyers was also showing signs of slowing. Completed transactions were declining and inventory was accumulating.

Those pressures appear strongest in the three central wards rather than uniformly across Tokyo. That matters because the 23 wards encompass very different price levels and buyer profiles; weakness at the top end should not automatically be treated as evidence of the same adjustment everywhere.

For now, transaction-price data still show a rising market. But AtHome’s agent survey raises a more forward-looking question: whether softer buyer traffic, greater price resistance and slower deal flow are beginning to emerge before completed-sale indices turn.

If that continues, the first clear sign of a Tokyo housing slowdown may not be falling prices, but fewer transactions at current price levels.

That would put increasing pressure on sellers to adjust their expectations - and could eventually bring transaction prices into line with the weaker conditions agents are already reporting.

Further Reading:

AtHome: Local Real Estate Brokerage Business Sentiment Survey, April-June 2026 (Japanese only)

Japan Real Estate Institute: Residential Property Price Index, June 2026 (Japanese only)