The shrinking market share of Tokyo lower priced new single-family homes
Average asking prices for new single-family homes (SFH) in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose 23.4% year on year in September 2026, according to an AtHome report released on October 27.
But the more revealing development is the changing distribution of advertised properties.
AtHome is one of Japan’s leading property portal websites, like the UK’s RightMove or Zillow in the States.
Lower-priced homes accounted for a smaller share of listings, while properties priced at JPY 100 million or more gained substantial ground, helping push the average asking price to a new high.
Lower-priced homes lose market share
The average asking price for a new single-family home in Tokyo’s 23 wards reached JPY 94.81 million in September, extending a run of record highs dating back to September 2025.
The combined share of listings priced below JPY 90 million fell by 15.6 percentage points from September 2025.
Fictional AI generated Tokyo SFH using a real photo as inspiration. All rights reserved.
Meanwhile, SFH advertised for JPY 100 million or more gained 13.9 percentage points, accounting for 28.4% of the market compared with 14.5% a year earlier.
The figures indicate a marked shift toward higher asking-price brackets. Nearly three in ten advertised new SFH’s in the 23 wards now carry asking prices of at least JPY 100 million.
However, the distinction between listing proportions and actual SFH listing volumes is important.
AtHome’s published breakdown shows the percentage of advertised properties within each price category but does not provide absolute listing counts by bracket.
A declining share of lower-priced SFH therefore does not establish that fewer such properties were advertised in absolute terms. Their numbers could have remained stable, or even increased, if overall listing volumes expanded sufficiently.
Changes in property characteristics may also influence the average. AtHome’s data show that average building floor area increased over the preceding year, while average land area changed little. The report does not establish how much of the price increase reflects differences in property size, location or specifications.
The evidence supports a change in the advertised market's price composition, but not a precise explanation of all the factors driving it.
Rising condominium prices in Tokyo may also be encouraging some buyers to consider new single-family homes as an alternative, although this is Patience Realty’s interpretation rather than a finding of the AtHome report.
Tokyo’s housing market shows a geographical divide
The contrast between Tokyo’s 23 wards and its surrounding municipalities is substantial.
In Tokyo non-23 wards, average SFH asking prices reached JPY 54.48 million, rising 8.7% year on year. Although prices increased in both areas, the pace of growth within the 23 wards was considerably faster.
The widening difference also reflects distinct advertised housing markets. New single-family homes outside the central wards continue to be offered at substantially lower average asking prices, providing a different range of price options within Tokyo.
Across the wider Greater Tokyo Area, encompassing Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, average asking prices rose 8.7% year on year. The much stronger increase within the 23 wards therefore represents a concentrated geographical development rather than a uniform regional trend.
The distribution of asking prices offers a clearer picture than the headline average alone: higher-priced properties now occupy a larger portion of Tokyo’s 23-ward new-home market.
Whether this reflects a lasting change in the supply of homes across price brackets, rather than a temporary shift in listing composition, remains unresolved but worth watching.
Further Reading:
AtHome - New Single-Family Home Asking Price Trends in Greater Tokyo, September 2026 (Japanese only).
