Jesper Koll explains why he is still bullish on the economic future of Japan
- Adam German
- Aug 15
- 2 min read
On August 9th, popular YouTube channel Unpacking Japan released a full length interview with the Japan Optimist Jesper Koll.
The wide ranging discussion dives deep into Jesper’s eighties arrival in Japan and subsequent career being sometimes the only economic cheerleader the nation has had.
Note the timestamps in the video that allow viewers to jump to specific topics as well as hyperlinked timeline in the video description.
Our bullet points below do not go over Jesper’s history in Japan as that is covered extensively elsewhere but those interested are encouraged to watch the interview from the beginning.
There is a reason Jesper is one of Japan’s go-to macro analysts in the past, present and very likely long into the future as well.
Key Takeaways from the Unpacking Japan Interview with Jesper Koll
Japan’s Labor Shortage Is Rewriting the Rules
A shrinking workforce is shifting power from corporations to employees.
Companies are moving toward merit-based promotions and career mobility.
Elite young bureaucrats are leaving government jobs - many for startups.
Corporate Hiring and Culture Are Changing
2024 marked the first year top firms hired more mid-career professionals than fresh graduates.
Even traditional giants like NTT are abandoning seniority-based pay in favor of performance-driven systems.
A Historic Wealth Transfer Is Coming
¥700–750 trillion in assets will change hands as the baby boomer generation passes away.
Current inheritance tax rules delay transfers until recipients are in their 60s, limiting economic impact.
Calls are growing for tax reforms to channel wealth to younger generations sooner.
Japan’s Debt Story Is Not What It Seems
While public debt is the highest in the world, it’s matched by massive private savings.
Interest rates remain low, and the Bank of Japan is slowly stepping back from decades of market intervention.
Global Trade Pressures Are Rising
US tariffs could dent corporate profits, particularly in autos, but targeted US - Japan industrial cooperation offers opportunities.
Japan Is Opening Up
Foreign residents have grown from half a million in 1986 to 3.5 million today.
Over 1,000 new work permits are issued daily, reflecting a shift toward greater international participation in the economy.
Strong Foundations for the Future
World-class education, efficient infrastructure, and high affordability for housing make Japan competitive.
The new NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) program offers generous tax-free investment allowances, though most funds currently flow overseas.
Read more about Jesper at his Substack The Japan Optimist found here.
