Japan average winter bonuses top JPY 1 million for first time says Nikkei Shimbun

On December 15th, the Nikkei Shimbun released its 2025 winter bonus survey, showing that the average bonus paid per employee rose 6.40% from a year earlier to ¥1,029,808, exceeding ¥1 million for the first time since the Nikkei began their survey.

Bonus payouts set a new record for the third consecutive year. Construction and defense-related industries led the gains, while auto and steel sectors lagged due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies.

Photo by Cullen Cedric on Unsplash

The survey covered 478 companies for which year-on-year comparisons were possible, with data compiled as of December 2. Bonuses increased for a fifth straight year, reaching their highest level since the survey began in 1975. The growth rate exceeded the 3.68% increase recorded in winter 2024 by 2.72 percentage points.

Annual wage earnings by Japanese consumers drive buyer demand.  When Japanese buyers go to a bank to learn how much they can borrow, their gross annual earnings (wages plus bonuses) are added together to determine maximum borrowing amount which in turn, translates into buyer demand for real estate.

Among companies citing reasons for higher bonuses, 59.5% pointed to rising wage levels, including base pay, surpassing the 42.1% that cited strong performance in the previous fiscal year. The results reflect the 2025 spring wage negotiations, which delivered average pay hikes of more than 5% for a second straight year. Including firms that did not disclose exact figures, 138 companies - just under 30% of the total - paid bonuses exceeding ¥1 million.

Non-manufacturing industries posted a 9.74% increase, the second-highest level on record, while manufacturing rose 4.99%. Non-manufacturers also exceeded manufacturers in bonus amounts for the second consecutive year, driving the overall increase.

Construction, where labor shortages remain severe, recorded a 17.31% increase. Real estate and housing rose 13.81%, supported by strong sales of luxury condominiums and solid hotel demand.

Railway and bus operators benefiting from inbound tourism demand saw bonuses rise 10.55%. JR East plans to pay ¥1,161,700, up 12.56%, while JR Kyushu will pay ¥885,385, up 12.66%, citing stronger-than-expected travel demand linked to events such as the Osaka–Kansai Expo.

Shipbuilding and heavy machinery surged 20.31%. IHI will pay a record ¥1,238,308, up 43.92%, reflecting strong aircraft engine and defense businesses. Kawasaki Heavy Industries will raise bonuses 41.57% to ¥1,122,912, citing efforts to secure and retain talent.

By contrast, export-oriented sectors struggled. Bonuses in the automotive and auto parts industry rose by just 3.28%.

The survey also highlighted the impact of “defensive wage hikes” aimed at preventing talent outflows. Bonuses at companies without performance-linked systems rose 8.08%, compared with 4.96% at firms with performance-based schemes.

Despite record payouts, it remains unclear whether bonuses will support sustained recovery in consumption. Real wages fell 0.7% year on year in October, marking a 10th consecutive monthly decline, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Further details, including bonus rankings, are available in Nikkei’s online Winter Bonus Survey (Japanese only; paywalled).

Source:

Nikkei Shimbun (Japanese only; paywalled)