High housing prices temper Tokyo population inflows

On February 3rd, the Nikkei Shimbun wrote that the pace of population concentration in Tokyo is slowing.

Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, also on the 3rd, that Tokyo’s net in-migration fell in 2025 for the first time in four years, signaling a potential shift after years of steady inflows into the capital.

Tokyo posted a net in-migration of 65,219 people in 2025, down 14,066 from the previous year.

Net inflows into the city’s 23 wards fell more sharply, dropping by 19,607 to 39,197, outpacing the decline for Tokyo overall.

Despite the slowdown, Tokyo continues to attract more residents than it loses, underscoring its ongoing pull as Japan’s economic and educational center.

Photo by Timo Volz on Unsplash

Across the Greater Tokyo Area - Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures - net in-migration fell by 12,309 to 123,534, marking the first contraction in four years. Excluding Tokyo, population inflows accelerated in Saitama and Kanagawa. Saitama recorded a net gain of 22,427 people, up 691 from a year earlier, while Kanagawa rose by 1,089 to 28,052. Chiba edged down slightly to 7,836.

Rising housing costs appear to be a key factor behind the slowdown in Tokyo. Apartment prices and rents have climbed most sharply in the 23 wards.

Real estate property portal At Home said the average asking rent for single-occupancy apartments of 30 square meters or less rose by more than ¥10,000 over the past year, reaching ¥106,854 in December 2025; the highest level since records began in 2015. Rents for larger units were about 10% higher than a year earlier.

The Real Estate Economic Institute also said the average price of newly built condominiums in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose 21.8% in 2025 to ¥136.13 million, far outpacing increases in surrounding prefectures.

Masayuki Nakagawa, a professor at Nihon University, said sharply rising housing costs have reduced the inflow of young people with moderate incomes who previously moved into central Tokyo, with declines most visible outside the March–April relocation season.

By contrast, suburban cities such as Saitama, Chiba, Yokohama and Kawasaki have not seen a notable drop in inflows, suggesting demand is shifting to areas surrounding the capital, Nakagawa said.

Some experts say population inflows into Tokyo could face further pressure. Yoshihiro Katayama, a former internal affairs minister, said high rents are deterring working-age residents, while older people see fewer benefits to remaining in an expensive city.

He added that fewer young people are likely to move to Tokyo as Japan’s birthrate declines, calling the current phase the possible “final stage” of Tokyo’s population concentration.

Internal Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said the government would closely monitor migration trends, adding that while regional revitalization policies have produced some results, they have yet to reverse the long-standing concentration of people in the Tokyo area.

Source:

Nikkei Shimbun (Japanese only; paywalled)