Greater Tokyo existing condo market weakens as October inventory surges
Greater Tokyo's existing condominium resale market showed further signs of weakening in October, with reported contracts declining for a seventh consecutive month and available inventory rising at an accelerating pace.
Figures released November 10 by the Real Estate Information Network for East Japan (REINS) also showed a sixth consecutive year-on-year decline in average contracted prices per square meter, even as advertised asking prices continued to rise.
REINS contracted-price statistics reflect transactions voluntarily reported by participating real estate companies, not every completed sale.
Original photo by Louie Martinez on Unsplash and AI-edited by Patience Realty to give a cyber-punk feel. All rights reserved.
Some market segments may be underrepresented, while changes in average prices can reflect differences in the properties reported rather than changes in comparable property values.
Nevertheless, the persistence of several trends points to changing conditions within the existing condo market captured by REINS data.
Inventory growth accelerates as reported contracts decline
REINS recorded 3,392 existing condo contracts in October, down 19.7% year on year. The average contracted price fell 6.5% to ¥49.79 million, while the average price per square meter declined 6.9% to ¥794,400.
Available inventory reached 53,510 properties, up 22.5% from a year earlier. Annual inventory growth has accelerated from 8.2% in August and 15.1% in September, with October alone adding 3,060 properties, or 6.1%.
New listings also rose 25.8% year on year to 20,072, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase.
The reported contract decline moderated from 22.7% in September to 19.7% in October, showing that not every indicator is deteriorating faster.
Nevertheless, the combination of increasing new listings, declining reported contracts and accumulating inventory points to a changing balance of available supply. REINS does not establish how much of the buildup reflects slower transactions, additional listings or other listing removals.
Asking prices continue to rise despite lower contracted prices
Advertised asking prices continue to move in the opposite direction from average reported contracted prices.
October's average contracted price per square meter fell 6.9% year on year, while asking prices for newly listed existing condos rose 17.5% to ¥1,202,600 per square meter. Asking prices for properties already in inventory increased 24.2% to ¥1,205,900.
The divergence has persisted: average contracted prices per square meter have declined year on year for six consecutive months, while asking prices for newly listed properties have risen for 30 months and those for properties in existing inventory for 27 months.
These figures cover different groups of properties and do not represent negotiated discounts. Differences in location, size and property characteristics can influence the averages.
The important finding is their sustained movement in opposite directions.
Tokyo's 23 wards show deeper transaction weakness
Tokyo's 23 wards recorded 1,343 reported existing condo contracts in October, down 26.9% year on year and extending their run of declines to ten consecutive months. Average contracted prices per square meter fell 4.0%, marking a third consecutive year-on-year decline.
Conditions varied elsewhere. Tokyo outside the 23 wards recorded a 17.8% decline in reported contracts, but average contracted prices per square meter increased 1.8%.
In Saitama, contracts fell 4.2%, while average contracted prices per square meter rose 4.9%.
The geographic differences caution against interpreting the regional averages as evidence of uniform price declines.
October's release cannot establish a market-wide correction in comparable existing condo values. However, seven months of declining reported contracts, six months of falling average contracted prices per square meter and accelerating inventory growth provide mounting evidence of sustained weakness within the REINS market.
The continued rise in advertised asking prices makes that divergence a defining feature of Greater Tokyo's existing condo market in 2026.
Further Reading:
East Japan REINS - October 2026 Monthly Market Watch Summary (Japanese only)
