Greater Tokyo condo sellers hesitant to lower prices despite longer time on market says Kantei
- Adam German
- Aug 8
- 3 min read
On July 31st, real estate data provider Tokyo Kantei released a report showing a continued narrowing of the price gap between listing and final transaction prices for existing condominiums in Greater Tokyo Area, based on its latest survey covering calendar 2024.
The Greater Tokyo Area (GTA) includes the prefectures of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama collectively. All prices below represent GTA averages and in no way guarantee pricing levels. Real estate is a hyper-local venture so always consult with a licensed realtor for your property specific needs.
The Kantei report is based on properties that sold within 12 months of being listed and calculates the price deviation ratio as the difference between the listing price and the sale price, expressed as a percentage.
Only cases where the sale price was lower than the listing price were included, as positive deviation (sold-over-asking) is rare in Japan.
Price gaps narrow despite longer selling periods
In the first half of 2024 (January - June), the average listing price was ¥50.69 million (down 0.1% from the previous half-year), while the average sale price rose 1.9% to ¥48.47 million. This resulted in a price gap of -4.38%, nearly a two-point improvement from the previous period.
In the second half of the year (July - December), the listing price dipped to ¥48.71 million (down 3.9%), while the average sale price also declined to ¥46.67 million (down 3.7%), but the price deviation continued to shrink, reaching -4.19%.
Graph courtesy of Tokyo Kantei report linked at the bottom of this article; edited by Patience Realty.
These are the narrowest price gaps recorded since 2015 when tracking began, surpassing the levels seen in 2021, when demand surged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In that year, the gap stood at -4.63% and -4.55% in the first and second halves, respectively.
However, the average time to close a sale continued to rise. In the first half of 2024, the average time from listing to sale was 5.10 months; in the second half, it was 5.11 months - marking the longest periods also since 2015.
Challenging prices still finding buyers
Despite the longer time on market, Tokyo Kantei notes that sellers are holding firm on pricing. The firm attributes this to continued expectations of rising construction labor costs and a historically weak yen raising material import costs impairing the rate future new builds.
These factors, combined with buyer demand - especially from affluent purchasers and investors focused on central Tokyo - have allowed existing condo sellers to maintain high listing prices over extended periods.
Even when listings initially failed to attract attention, sellers were often unwilling to make steep or early price cuts. This was especially true for relatively new existing condos that could substitute for new builds, particularly those in convenient or high-demand locations.
Deviations by sale duration show buyers increasingly accept pricing
Breakdowns by time-to-sale further illustrate the market’s firmness:
Units sold within 1 month had a small average price gap of -2.41%. Notably, 44.4% of these sold without any price reduction at all (0% deviation), and 33.2% sold within a 5% discount range.
For transactions concluded within 3 months, the average deviation remained modest at -3.45%, indicating that early sales are generally happening with minimal discounts.
Even units that took the full 12 months to sell only posted a -4.69% price gap, remaining within a relatively tight range.
Longer sale periods (10+ months) did see an increased share of listings with deep discounts (over -20%), but these remained a minority.
However, the share of ultra-fast sales declined. In 2024, only 20.6% of all transactions closed within 1 month, down from 31.7% the previous year.
The percentage of properties sold within 3 months fell below 50% for the first time, coming in at 45.7%. By contrast, 67.8% of units sold within 6 months, reflecting a shift toward longer marketing periods.
Further Reading:
Tokyo Kantei Calendar 2024 Price Deviation Rates for Existing Condominium Sales (Japanese only)
Source:
R.E. Port News (Japanese only)
